Some sunny breaks had been forecast for today, but the day arrived with rain and heavy cloud. Thinning of the cloud cover began late in the afternoon closer to sunset. It was also much cooler than had been forecast. Now the sunny breaks are predicted for a couple days during the week as are temperatures in the mid to high teens.
It seems that weather forecasts tend to suggest the arrival of pleasant weather when forecasting five to seven days into the future. Computer modeling changes with gathering of further information. For this reason, the forecast beyond tomorrow will change more often than not. Whether this is a service or disservice depends on one's frame of mind or desire to plan for outdoor or travel activities. The trust held for forecasts fluctuates with the level of recent ability to successfully predict the future. This degree of confidence often reminds me of a quote by Mark Carney (former governor of the Bank of Canada and also of the Bank of England) as cited in one of David Johnston's (former Governor General) -- "Trust arrives on foot and leaves in a Ferrari". For trust of weather forecasts there is also a recency bias. This can be a memory bias with short term events taking precedence. However, there may also be an effect related to desired outcome -- hearing what one wants to hear, like a sunny warm day for the weekend. So, one sunny day forecast and delivered can erase many past disappointments.
A bright, upbeat song came to mind when thinking of the concept of trust in the context of weather today. It is what we'd all like to have more of, I think. <smile> Keep safe. Enjoy!
Count on Me -- Bruno Mars
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