Sunday 13 November 2022

9-316 (12/11/22) -- Hyperbole in Forecasts

Today was rainy and warm. The rain was all over the map. First nothing then light rain and moments of hearvier rain. There was  lot of time with mist or nothing actually falling from the sky. The air varied between being still onto a light breeze. This is all good, since the low pressure system that came from the tropical depression and Colorado low arrived in the Atlantic region today. Preciptation would be worse in the areas north of here. We received far less rain than forecast. Other areas got more than we did and some of that fell in a frozen form.  I worked indoors on household cleaning and laundry and did some editing work on a project -- just your basic Saturday living the dream. <smile> 

The day brought thoughts of expectations and predictions that can affect levels of anxiety when they err on the side of worst case scenarios. It is important to let people know that something wicked is on the way. When the chance of major storms is slight, then that should be the leading message rather than stating what might be the outside chance. Forecasts require a degree of trust to accept and prepare. When forecasts do not upfold as stated, there is a loss of trust. I laughed out loud when I thought of a line or two of lyric that made me think the forecasters just as well could have said this. <grin> Yet, we will need to listen to the forecasts and look carefully at the data they are based on. This should help to understand the potential for worse storm outcomes.  Keep Safe. Enjoy! 

It's Raining Men -- The Weather Girls 






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