Thursday 4 April 2024

11- 93 (2/4/24) -- Predicting Futures

This busy day began with physio appointment And was followed by shopping errands. I visited both grocery stores and three other stores to get the items needed to refill the pantry staples. I had planned to do this on Thursday, but a special weather statement warned of impending doom -- well some type of nor'easter actually. The days involved have low confidence levels for the forecast. How much precipitation will fall and in what form also has low confidence. What has high confidence level is that something is approaching Atlantic Canada. Storm track and strength will become clearer as we get closer. The storm should begin overnight tomorrow and could last up to four days after than start. Rain and snow mix is most likely, but how much could be a little or a lot at this point. So, shopping on Thursday seemed unwise at this point and I had much of the afternoon available today. 

Special weather statements are indicators that something is brewing. Watches and warnings may follow if things appear to have high winds or major precipitation. The forecasting of something vague can let people know that weather might interfere with plans. At the statement phase, though, the computer models are all over, so nothing definite can be shared. Sadly, some forecasters report the worst case scenario more than others, which increases anxiety among people who have dealt with major storms in the past. We noticed this after Hurricane Fiona. This past hurricane season brought a lot of anxiety and fear about 'what if' forecasts. The huge snowfall we had two months ago will make the current potential numbers for the next storm very triggering. So, if they could find that happy medium when communicating a forecast, we'd know something was on its way without the hysteria of 'it could be huge' statements. 

When listening to weather forecasts, I often think of the same thing. I found a great collaboration on a song that fits my thoughts well.  Keep safe. Enjoy!

Fortune Teller -- Robert Plant & Alison Krauss 




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